［Objective］Developing a rational ecological risk assessment methodology is of great significance for the establishment of ecological security patterns and the optimization of national land space planning.［Methods］Based on land use data from 2000，2010 and 2020，the PLUS model was employed to simulate land use under the natural development scenario in 2030. The InVEST model was utilized to assess four ecosystem services，i.e. water yield， carbon storage， soil conservation， and habitat quality. Four ecological risk indicators， including ecological degradation degree，transition probability，service change，and trade-off and synergy indices，were extracted to construct an ecological risk assessment model. The assessment was conducted in conjunction with the ecological security pattern of Yunnan Province to explore risk prevention strategies.［Results］1）Although the land use changes under the natural development scenario in Yunnan Province in 2030 would be different，the degree of change would be the same. The conversion between cultivated land，forest land and grassland would be obvious，and the construction land would continue to expand. In terms of spatial distribution，the natural development scenario would be similar to the historical land use data，with the degraded areas of ecological land mainly distributed around urban development and construction areas or agricultural regions. 2）The ecosystem service functions in Yunnan Province would show a pattern of "low in the east and high in the west"，with the northwest and southwest regions being high-value areas，and the central and northeast regions being low-value areas，and the overall service function showing a downward trend. The ecological service functions of Nujiang，Baoshan，Dehong and Xishuangbanna would show an increasing trend，while the trade-off and coordination indices of central and northeastern regions would be high，and the functional conflicts between ecosystem services would be obvious. 3） There would be significant spatial differences in potential ecological risks in Yunnan Province from 2020 to 2030. High-risk areas would be mainly distributed in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration，while low-risk areas would be located in the southeast and southwest. The formation of high-risk areas would be affected by natural factors such as topography and land use distribution，as well as human activities such as urban development and construction. Ecological protection measures tailored to regional specificities are needed to promote sustainable development.［Conclusion］The results can not only provide a more accurate understanding of the potential ecological risks in Yunnan Province，supply fundamental decision-making information for the establishment of ecological security patterns and ecological restoration，but also provide innovative ideas for the expansion of ecological risk assessment methodologies.