Changes in Climate Elements over China under Different Warming Scenarios Based on NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 datasets
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Anhui Normal University

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    Abstract:

    [Objective] Against the backdrop of persistent global warming impacts on climate systems, this study investigates the evolving trends and spatial patterns of climatic elements across China under different warming scenarios, aiming to provide a scientific foundation for formulating differentiated climate adaptation strategies. [Methods] Using NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) CMIP6 high-resolution data, this study evaluates the changes in climate elements across China under global warming scenarios of 1.5?°C to 5?°C, with a focus on analyzing trends and spatial distribution of six key climate variables. [Results] China's land surface warms faster than the global average, exhibiting amplified warming relative to global temperature rise. At 1.5?°C global warming, China’s annual mean temperature increases by approximately 1.3?°C, escalating to 5.92?°C under 5?°C warming. The minimum temperatures rises even more markedly, reaching 6.21?°C. The warming is particularly significant in Northeast China, North China, and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Precipitation increases notably, with 70% of regions experiencing annual precipitation increases exceeding 50?mm relative to the baseline period under 3?°C warming, while the Tibetan Plateau and Northwest China receive over 100?mm more. Extreme high-temperature and extreme precipitation events are projected to intensify in both frequency and magnitude under higher warming scenarios. Wind speed and relative humidity display declining trends, potentially affecting wind energy utilization and regional moisture cycles. At 1.5?°C warming, wind speed decreases by about 0.15?m/s, nearly doubling to 0.32?m/s under 5?°C warming. Relative humidity declines by 0.34% compared to the baseline period at 5?°C warming, though substantial inter-model uncertainties persist. [Conclusion] These findings provide scientific support for climate adaptation and mitigation policies in China, emphasizing the critical need to constrain global temperature rise to address potential climate challenges and reduce future climate risks.

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History
  • Received:January 27,2025
  • Revised:February 25,2025
  • Adopted:March 10,2025
  • Online: July 07,2025
  • Published:
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