Temporal and Spatial Evolution Characteristics of Carbon Storage in Hefei Ecosystem Based on PLUS and InVEST Models

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    [Objective] To seek a new urban development plan of Hefei under the guidance of "double carbon" goal. [Methods] Based on the land use data of Hefei City in the 5th period from 2000 to 2020, under the guidance of territorial spatial Planning of Hefei City, the spatio-temporal evolution law of land use in 2035 was simulated by the PLUS model, and the spatio-temporal change characteristics of carbon storage in Hefei City under multiple scenarios were explored by coupling the InVEST model. And further explore the effect of the comprehensive land use on the carbon storage. [Results] (1) The main characteristics of land use change in Hefei City from 2000 to 2020 were the decrease of cultivated land and forest land, among which cultivated land was the main source of construction land expansion. The law of land change in the natural development and farmland resource protection scenarios was roughly the same, mainly represented by the reduction of cultivated land, forest land and water body. In the green urban development scenario, the area of forest land changed from decreasing to increasing compared with the other two scenarios. (2) Carbon storage in Hefei City decreased year by year from 2000 to 2020, and the carbon loss was the most 2005 to 2010. By 2035, the carbon reserves of natural development scenario, farmland resource protection scenario and green urban development scenario were 138.96×106 t, 140.13×106 t, and 139.81×106 t, respectively. Under the farmland resource protection scenario, the area with the lowest increase of carbon storage significantly slowed down the expansion of the construction land. under the scenario of urban development, forest land changes from carbon loss to carbon sequestration, which was the most potential trend of carbon sequestration. (3) The land utilization rate of green urban development scenario was the highest, which can effectively reduce the threat of comprehensive land use degree to carbon storage loss. [Conclusion] Both farmland resource protection scenario and green accumulation urban development scenario were conducive to urban carbon sequestration development. Implementing parallel policies of ecological protection and urban development, and adjusting comprehensive land use mode were conducive to improving urban carbon loss.

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  • Received:September 26,2023
  • Revised:October 24,2023
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  • Online: May 20,2024
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