Multi scenario simulation of land use and carbon stock assessment in the Pearl River Basin in the next decade

Jiangsu Normal University

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National Natural Science Foundation of China Youth Fund Project(42101256)

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    [Objective]The temporal and spatial changes of land use and carbon storage in the Pearl River Basin in the past 20 years and the next 10 years were analyzed, in order to provide a reference for the optimization of land use pattern and ecosystem carbon sequestration management in the Pearl River Basin. [Methods]Based on the land use data of 2002, 2012 and 2022, this paper analyzes the changes of land use types, uses the PLUS model to simulate the land use pattern under the natural development scenario, cultivated land protection scenario and ecological protection scenario in 2032, and uses the InVEST model to evaluate the changes of ecosystem carbon storage under the three scenarios. [Results]The results show that the land types in the Pearl River Basin have changed greatly in the past 20 years, and the one-way conversion of cultivated land to construction land and the two-way conversion between cultivated land and forest land are the main characteristics of land use change in the Pearl River Basin. During the same period, the carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems showed a downward trend as a whole, with a decrease of 0.52%. The carbon storage projection in 2032 shows that the carbon storage under the ecological protection scenario is significantly higher than that under the cultivated land protection scenario and the natural development scenario, which are4.84×106 ton和10.22×106ton higher, respectively. [Conclusion]Therefore, when formulating land use planning in the future, decision-makers should consider the balance between economic development and ecological protection, strengthen the concept of ecological protection and green development in river basins, increase the function of land carbon storage, and help achieve the "double carbon" goal and regional sustainable development.

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  • Received:November 07,2023
  • Revised:January 05,2024
  • Adopted:January 05,2024
  • Online: May 13,2024
  • Published: