Spatial-temporal Variation Characteristics of Future Extreme Precipitation and Its Elevation Dependency over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
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    Abstract:

    Extreme precipitation events have important impacts on the sustainable development of ecological-water-resource-agricultural on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.Based on the daily precipitation datasets of General Circulation Models (GCMs) released by CMIP6(coupled model intercomparision project phase),the ability of GCMs to simulate the characteristics of historical extreme precipitation over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau was systematically evaluated,and the future extreme precipitation was predicted.The results showed that multi-model ensemble (MME) exhibited a better performance of capturing spatio-temporal variation characteristics of extreme precipitation.Specifically,the variation trends of R95p,SDII,R1mm,CWD,and PRCP were consistent with those of observed values in different altitude zones,while the ability of CMIP6 MME to reproduce the variation trends of extreme precipitation indices decreased increasing altitude.The predicted extreme precipitation characteristics over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau during the future near-term,mid-term,and long-term periods under different combination scenarios of shared socioeconomic pathways and the representative concentration pathways (SSP) were implemented.With the process of time and the increase of greenhouse gas emission concentration in the future period R95p,SDII,R1mm,CWD,and PRCP all showed a significantly increasing trend compared with the baseline period.While the most significant increase of SDII occurred in the southeast,the variation patterns of R95p,R1mm,CWD,and PRCP exhibited a relatively consistent spatial distribution characteristics of decreasing from northwest to southeast.The increase in extreme precipitation intensity is most significant in the southeast.In addition,the future variability of each extreme precipitation index compared to the base period showed the most remarkable variability in lower altitude regions (<2 000 m),with the maximum variability exceeding 200%.SDII showed a consistent increasing trend with rising elevation,and the relative changing rates of SDII under the SSP5-8.5 scenario were-0.06%,14.45%,and 17.95% at low (<3 500 m),middle (3 500~4 500 m),and high (>4 500 m) elevation zones,respectively,indicating that the increase of extreme precipitation intensity was more significant at higher elevations.

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History
  • Received:July 18,2022
  • Revised:
  • Adopted:
  • Online: February 24,2023
  • Published: April 28,2023
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