Abstract:To explore the impact of land use change on carbon storage in Anhui Province, and reveal the spatial-temporal evolution and future trend of carbon storage, this study coupled carbon storage module of InVEST model and PLUS model to evaluate the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of land use types and carbon storage in Anhui Province from 1990 to 2018, and to predict the change trend of carbon storage in Anhui Province in 2034 and 2050 from natural development and ecological protection scenarios. The results showed that the carbon storage of Anhui Province in 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2018 was 1 218.37×106, 1 215.65×106, 1 211.39×106 and 1 206.18×106 t, respectively. The carbon storage decreased year by year, which was caused by the occupation of cultivated land and forest land. In addition, the land use types in Anhui province varied spatially, and the overall carbon storage was much higher in the southern part than that in northern and central part. According to the results of scenario simulation, carbon storage in Auhui province under the natural development scenario would be 1 197.93×106 and 1 196.08×106 t in 2034 and 2050, respectively. Under the ecological protection scenario, the carbon storage would be 1 202.89×106 and 1 200.37×106 t in the same period. Compared with the natural development scenario, the expansion of construction land under the ecological protection scenario would be limited, and the high carbon density land types such as forests and grasslands would be protected, and the carbon storage capacity would be improved. These results could lay foundation for further clarifying the spatial and temporal pattern of carbon storage in Anhui Province and provide scientific references for further implementation of sustainable development strategy, acceleration of ecological province construction and "dual carbon" strategic planning in Anhui Province in the future.