黄河中游水-能源-粮食纽带系统可持续性的时空分异及其障碍机制
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黄蓉晖(2002-),女,硕士研究生,主要从事农业水土资源高效利用与保护研究。E-mail:hrhisfree@163.com

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X24.1

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国家自然科学基金项目(52479038,52309049);国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3206503,2023YFC3206504)


Spatio-Temporal Differentiation and Obstacle Mechanism of Sustainability of the Water-Energy-Food Nexus System in the Middle Reaches of the Yellow River
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    摘要:

    [目的]为揭示黄河流域中游地区水-能源-粮食系统协同演变规律及其障碍因素。[方法]通过构建水-能源-粮食纽带关系评价指标体系,运用熵权法计算指标权重,解析2010—2021年系统协同演变特征,结合障碍度诊断模型识别关键制约因素。[结果]研究区水-能源-粮食纽带关系的时序演变呈3个典型阶段,2017年成为关键转折点,可持续指数由此前的稳步增长转为快速提升,区域最高值从0.56上升至0.74;空间格局从2010年的“凹”形分布演变为2020年的“凸”形分布,区域发展呈“陕西优势突出、山西稳中有升、内蒙古相对滞后”的特征,其中,宝鸡市可持续指数增幅达117.60%,而太原、包头等传统工业城市呈负增长;障碍因素呈显著的区域差异和动态演变特征,内蒙古自治区由工业化学需氧量排放(9.64%)转变为农业灌溉用水和能源消费的双重制约,陕西省工业化学需氧量排放的障碍度显著降低(从11.71%降至0.26%),但能源消费量的制约作用上升(10.13%),山西省工业化学需氧量排放的障碍度大幅下降(从13.90%降至0.15%)。[结论]水-能源-粮食系统协同发展受资源利用效率与产业结构的动态调控,研究提出的区域差异化障碍因子识别方法可为黄河流域生态保护与资源优化配置提供决策依据。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] To reveal the coordinated evolution patterns and obstacle factors of the water-energy-food(WEF) nexus in the middle reaches of the Yellow River basin. [Methods] An evaluation index system for the WEF nexus was established. The entropy weight method was used to calculate the weights of the indicators, and the coordinated evolution characteristics of the system from 2010 to 2021 were analyzed. A diagnostic model of obstacle degree was applied to identify the key constraining factors.[Results] The temporal evolution of the WEF nexus in the study area exhibited three typical stages, with 2017 identified as a key turning point. The sustainability index shifted from steady growth to rapid improvement, with the regional maximum increasing from 0.56 to 0.74. The spatial pattern transformed from a "concave" distribution in 2010 to a "convex" one in 2020, reflecting a regional development trend of "prominent advantages in Shaanxi, steady improvement in Shanxi, and relative lag in Inner Mongolia". Baoji City, in particular, achieved a remarkable 117.60% increase in its sustainability index, whereas traditional industrial cities such as Taiyuan and Baotou experienced negative growth. Obstacle factors demonstrated significant regional disparities and dynamic variations. In Inner Mongolia, the primary constraints shifted from industrial chemical oxygen demand(COD) emissions(9.64%) to dual limitations of agricultural irrigation water use and energy consumption. In Shaanxi, the obstacle degree of industrial COD emissions significantly decreased(from 11.71% to 0.26%), while the constraint posed by energy consumption increased(10.13%). In Shanxi, the obstacle degree of industrial COD emissions sharply dropped(from 13.90% to 0.15%). [Conclusion] The coordinated development of the WEF nexus is dynamically regulated by resource use efficiency and industrial structure. The proposed method for identifying region-specific obstacle factors can provide decision-making support for ecological conservation and optimized resource allocation in the Yellow River Basin.

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黄蓉晖, 崔思梦, 王小军, 黄萱, 操信春.黄河中游水-能源-粮食纽带系统可持续性的时空分异及其障碍机制[J].水土保持学报,2025,39(4):369~379

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  • 收稿日期:2025-02-25
  • 最后修改日期:2025-03-14
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-09-10
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