青海湖流域陆地生态系统NEP时空格局及驱动因素定量分离
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胡云云(1985-),女,高级工程师,硕士,主要从事林草资源调查监测与评价研究。E-mail:63970165@qq.com

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X87.1

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陕西省重点研发计划项目(2022ZDLSF06-01);国家林业和草原局计划项目(LC-2-02)


Spatiotemporal Patterns and Quantitative Separation of Driving Factors for NEP in Terrestrial Ecosystem of Qinghai Lake Basin
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    摘要:

    [目的]量化气候变化和人类活动对青海湖流域陆地生态系统固碳的影响,为评估区域植被固碳能力、制定气候变化应对措施及实施生态修复提供科学依据。[方法]基于MODIS遥感数据估算净生态系统生产力(NEP),采用趋势分析、稳定性分析、Hurst指数和重心迁移等方法,探究青海湖流域2000—2021年NEP时空格局和演替规律,利用偏相关、复相关及残差分析定量分离气候变化和人类活动驱动NEP时空分异的影响。[结果] 1)青海湖流域2000—2021年NEP呈逐年上升趋势,增长速率为2.16 g/(m2·a),表现为东南高西北低、以青海湖为中心辐散减弱的空间分布格局;近80%的区域NEP呈上升趋势,极显著上升、显著上升区域占比分别为61.50%、17.61%,NEP下降区域分布在环青海湖西、北沿岸和东北沿岸地区,零星分布在流域的北部;青海湖流域NEP极低波动和低波动变化区域面积占比77.32%;目前NEP增加的区域未来可能呈减少趋势,面积占比为89.19%;碳源的重心整体表现为由流域西北向东南青海湖沿岸迁移的趋势,迁移直线距离约为171.72 km;碳汇重心则由东向西迁移,迁移直线距离约为2.68 km。2)青海湖流域NEP年际变化与气温、降水、太阳辐射、地表温度的平均偏相关系数分别为0.141 3、0.124 7、-0.182 9和-0.002 2,气温和降水与NEP呈正相关,太阳辐射和地表温度与NEP呈负相关,显著性均不强。3)残差分析表明,气候变化和人类活动共同促进NEP提升的区域占95.10%。[结论]气候和人类活动共同影响NEP变化,2000—2021年,青海湖流域陆地生态系统大部分地区碳汇能力显著提升。流域内暖湿化气候背景下,青海省近年来贯彻落实封山禁牧措施、大力实施固沙种草造林等生态综合治理工程共同促进NEP不断提升,而人为活动的增加和建设开发活动频繁及青海湖水位升高、面积扩张可能抑制NEP提升。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] This study aims to quantify the effects of climate change and human activities on carbon sequestration in the terrestrial ecosystems of the Qinghai Lake basin, providing a scientific basis for assessing carbon sequestration capacity of regional vegetation, formulating climate change response measures, and implementing ecological restoration.[Methods] Based on MODIS remote sensing data, net ecosystem productivity(NEP) was estimated. Trend analysis, stability analysis, Hurst index, and center migration methods were employed to investigate the spatiotemporal patterns and evolution trends of NEP in the Qinghai Lake basin from 2000 to 2021. Partial correlation, multiple correlation, and residual analysis were used to quantitatively separate the effects of human activities and climate change on spatiotemporal differentiation of NEP. [Results] 1) Over the 22-year period, NEP in the Qinghai Lake Basin showed an increasing trend at a rate of 2.16 g/(m2·a), with a spatial distribution pattern of higher values in the southeast and lower in the northwest, radiating outward from Qinghai Lake with diminishing intensity. Nearly 80% of the area exhibited an upward NEP trend, with extremely significant and significant increases accounting for 61.50% and 17.61%, respectively. Areas with declining NEP trends were distributed along the western, northern, and northeastern shores of Qinghai Lake, with sporadic occurrences in the northern part of the basin. Approximately 77.32% of the basin exhibited low and extremely low volatility in NEP changes, while 89.19% of the areas with increasing NEP were projected to shift to a decreasing trend in the future. The center of carbon sources generally migrated from the northwest to the southeastern shore of Qinghai Lake, covering a straight-line distance of about 171.72 km, whereas the center of carbon sinks shifted westward by approximately 2.68 km. 2) The average partial correlation coefficients between interannual NEP changes and temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, and land surface temperature were 0.141 3, 0.124 7,-0.182 9 and-0.002 2, respectively. Temperature and precipitation showed positive correlations with NEP, while solar radiation and land surface temperature exhibited negative correlations. All correlations were statistically insignificant. 3) Residual analysis indicated that regions where both climate change and human activities jointly promoted NEP increases accounted for 95.10% of the study area. [Conclusion] Climate and human activities jointly affect NEP changes. Over the past two decades, most areas of the Qinghai Lake Basin’s terrestrial ecosystem have seen a notable increase in carbon sink capacity. Under a warmer and wetter climate background, ecological measures in Qinghai Province-such as grazing prohibition, desertification control, and afforestation-have collectively boosted NEP growth. However, increasing human activities, frequent construction projects, and the rising water level and expanding area of Qinghai Lake may hinder further NEP improvement.

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胡云云, 何学高, 李国兴, 闫鑫泽, 魏江涛, 刘欢, 程炜, 侯晓巍.青海湖流域陆地生态系统NEP时空格局及驱动因素定量分离[J].水土保持学报,2025,39(4):254~266

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  • 收稿日期:2025-02-28
  • 最后修改日期:2025-03-31
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-09-10
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