甘肃黄土高原区植被物候变化及影响因素
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周鑫蓉(2001-),女,硕士研究生,主要从事环境遥感研究。E-mail:zhou-0107@foxmail.com

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TP751.1;P2

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国家自然科学基金项目(42261069)


Analysis of Vegetation Phenological Changes and Influencing Factors in the Loess Plateau Region of Gansu Province
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    摘要:

    [目的]为研究甘肃黄土高原地区植被物候,即植被生长和发育的季节性变化,深入了解气候变化如何影响该地区的植被生长规律。[方法]基于2002—2021年的MODIS NDVI数据集、气象数据、数字高程模型(DEM)及标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)数据,提取甘肃黄土高原区植被生长季始期(SOS)、植被生长季末期(EOS)、植被生长季长度(LOS),采用Theil-Sen趋势分析法和Mann-Kendall检验法探究黄土高原植被SOS、EOS和LOS的时空动态变化情况,采用偏相关分析法研究植被物候变化与气温、降水、干旱和地形的关系,基于Hurst指数和随机森林回归模型预测未来甘肃黄土高原区植被物候变化。[结果] 1)甘肃黄土高原区植被SOS集中在第81~138 d,变化速率为-4.5 d/10 a;EOS集中在第266~305 d,变化速率为-0.4 d/10 a;LOS集中在131~218 d,变化速率为2.6 d/10 a。2)研究期温度与植被SOS(90%)、EOS(54%)呈正相关,与LOS呈负相关;降水与植被SOS(85%)呈正相关,与植被EOS(57%)、LOS呈负相关;陇西黄土高原西部植被SOS变化和天水南部植被EOS与干旱呈显著负相关,兰州、临夏及定西等部分地区植被LOS与干旱呈显著正相关。3)未来甘肃黄土高原植被物候南部地区SOS提前,EOS推迟,LOS延长;北部地区SOS推迟,EOS提前,LOS缩短。[结论] 2002—2021年,研究区由于气象等因素的显著影响,整个甘肃黄土高原地区植被的生长周期有效延长,改善当地生态环境,促进生态系统稳定和可持续发展,未来应继续加强生态环境保护力度,推动生态修复和治理工作深入开展,为甘肃黄土高原地区的生态文明建设作出更大贡献。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] This study aimed to investigate the phenology of vegetation, i.e., the seasonal changes in the growth and development of vegetation in the Loess Plateau region of Gansu Province, and to gain a deeper understanding of how climate change affects the growth patterns of vegetation in this area. [Methods] Based on MODIS NDVI datasets, meteorological data, digital elevation models(DEM), and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI) data from 2002 to 2021, the start of the growing season(SOS), end of the growing season(EOS), and length of the growing season(LOS) of vegetation in the Loess Plateau region of Gansu Province were extracted. Theil-Sen trend analysis and Mann-Kendall tests were used to explore the spatiotemporal dynamics of SOS, EOS and LOS. Partial correlation analysis was employed to investigate the relationships between vegetation phenology and temperature, precipitation, drought, and topography. The Hurst index and random forest regression model were utilized to predict future changes in vegetation phenology in the Loess Plateau region of Gansu. [Results] 1) The SOS of vegetation in the Loess Plateau region of Gansu was concentrated between day 81 to 138, with a change rate of-4.5 d/10 a; the EOS was concentrated around day 266 to 305, with a change rate of-0.4 d/10 a; and the LOS was concentrated around 131 to 218 days, with change rate of 2.6 d/10 a. 2) During the study period, temperature was positively correlated with SOS(90%) and EOS(54%), and negatively correlated with LOS. Precipitation was positively correlated with SOS(85%), and negatively correlated with EOS(57%) and LOS. SOS in the western part of the Longxi Loess Plateau and EOS in the southern part of Tianshui were significantly negatively correlated with drought, while LOS in some areas such as Lanzhou, Linxia and Dingxi was significantly positively correlated with drought. 3) In the future, in the southern part of the Loess Plateau region of Gansu, SOS is expected to advance, EOS is expected to delay, and LOS is expected to extend; in the northern part, SOS is expected to delay, EOS is expected to advance, and LOS is expected to shorten. [Conclusion] From 2002 to 2021, due to significant influences of meteorological factors, the growth cycle of vegetation in the Loess Plateau region of Gansu has effectively lengthened, and has improved the local ecological environment and promoted the stability and sustainable development of the ecosystem. In the future, efforts should be made to further strengthen ecological environment protection, promote in-depth ecological restoration and governance, and make greater contributions to the construction of ecological civilization in the Loess Plateau region of Gansu.

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周鑫蓉, 牛全福, 朱登峰, 邵东虎, 程西安.甘肃黄土高原区植被物候变化及影响因素[J].水土保持学报,2025,39(4):118~128,137

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  • 收稿日期:2024-12-20
  • 最后修改日期:2025-03-31
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-09-10
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