长三角地区城市土地绿色利用效率与高质量发展互动协调效应
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马明(1979-),男,硕士,副教授,主要从事国土空间规划技术与方法研究。E-mail:ahjzu_mam@163.com

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F301.24;X321

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国家自然科学基金青年项目(52408045);安徽省教育厅人文社科重点项目(SK2021A0344);安徽省高校省级人文社会科学研究优秀青年项目(2022AH030030)


Exploring Interactive Coordination Effect between Urban Green Land Use Efficiency and High-Quality Development in Yangtze River Delta Region
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    摘要:

    [目的] 探究城市土地绿色利用效率和城市高质量发展的互动关系及协调效应,为促进城市土地绿色利用转型,实现区域高质量发展提供科学支撑。[方法] 以长三角地区41个地级市为对象,构建评价指标体系,分别运用非期望产出Super-EBM、熵权-TOPSIS模型测算2008—2022年城市土地绿色利用效率与高质量发展指数,采用PVAR模型揭示二者互动关系,借助修正后的耦合协调模型、GM(1,1)灰色预测模型探究二者协调时空特征及未来趋势。[结果] 1)长三角地区城市土地绿色利用效率呈波动上升态势,呈“西退东进-泛均质化”的空间特征;高质量发展非线性增长特征明显,“极化辐射-干线延伸”空间格局突出。2)二者存在双向因果交互关系,同时受自身和对方的双重冲击,但更多受自身结构影响,具有惯性依赖特征,并且高质量发展对城市土地绿色利用效率的促进作用更强。3)二者协调水平稳步增长,表现为上海市>江苏省>浙江省>安徽省,总体呈“南高北低、东高西低、中部隆起”的空间特征,以发达城市为核心的“Z”字形轴线格局逐渐明晰;未来协调水平持续改善,但“核心-边缘”分布态势得到巩固。[结论] 通过全面落实高质量发展要求,发挥核心增长极溢出效应,针对不同类型城市精准施策,从而实现区域整体交互协调发展。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] To explore the interactive coordination effect between urban green land use efficiency and high-quality urban development,and to provide scientific insights for facilitating the green transition in urban land utilization and advancing regional high-quality development. [Methods] Taking 41 prefecture-level cities in the Yangtze River Delta region as research subjects,this study constructed an evaluation index system. Then,urban green land use efficiency and high-quality development index during 2008—2022 were assessed,employing the Super-EBM with undesirable outputs and the entropy-TOPSIS model, respectively. A panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model was also adopted to reveal their interactive relationships. Furthermore, an improved coupling coordination model and GM(1,1)gray prediction model were applied to investigate their spatiotemporal coordination characteristics and future evolution trends. [Results] 1)The urban green land use efficiency in the Yangtze River Delta region demonstrated a fluctuating upward trend,exhibiting spatial patterns characterized by ″westward retreat with eastward advancement and progressive homogenization ″. Meanwhile, high-quality development displayed pronounced non-linear growth trends,forming a prominent spatial pattern marked by ″core-periphery radiation with axial extension ″. 2)The analysis revealed a bidirectional causal relationship between urban green land use efficiency and high-quality development index. Both of them experienced bidirectional shocks(endogenous and cross-systemic),but were driven predominantly by endogenous structural factors,thus demonstrating inertial dependence characteristics. High-quality development exerted a stronger promoting effect on urban green land use efficiency. 3)The coupling coordination between the two systems showed consistent growth,exhibiting a clear regional hierarchy:Shanghai > Jiangsu > Zhejiang > Anhui. Spatially,it manifested characteristics as follows:southern regions outperformed their northern counterparts, coastal areas demonstrated superior coordination to inland zones, while central cities exhibited significant developmental uplift. A ″Z-shaped ″axis pattern centered on developed cities emerged clearly. The coordination was expected to continuously improve, but the core-periphery distribution situation would be consolidated. [Conclusion] By fully implementing the requirements of high-quality development,leveraging the spillover effect of core growth,and implementing targeted policies for different types of cities,overall interactive and coordinated regional development can be achieved.

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马明, 毛理虎, 李久林, 周梦茹, 胡素雯, 李鹏振.长三角地区城市土地绿色利用效率与高质量发展互动协调效应[J].水土保持学报,2025,39(5):276~289

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  • 收稿日期:2024-12-23
  • 最后修改日期:2025-02-25
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-10-20
  • 出版日期: 2025-10-28
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