基于NEX-GDDP-CMIP6的不同温升情景下中国气候要素变化
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温姗姗(1989-),女,讲师,主要从事气候变化影响研究。E-mail:wenss@ahnu.edu.cn

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P467

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国家自然科学基金项目(42005126,42271081)


Changes in Climate Elements in China under Different Warming Scenarios Based on NEX-GDDP-CMIP6
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    摘要:

    [目的] 全球温升对气候系统具有持续性影响,深入理解不同温升情景下气候要素的变化趋势及其空间分布特征,有助于为制定差异化的气候适应策略提供科学依据。[方法] 基于NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections(NEX-GDDP-CMIP6)高分辨率数据,评估全球温升1.5~5.0℃情景下中国气候要素的变化,重点分析6个关键气候变量的变化趋势及空间分布。[结果] 中国陆地增温速率高于全球平均水平,且相对增幅随全球温升呈加剧趋势。当全球温升1.5℃时,中国年平均气温上升约1.3℃,温升5.0℃时,中国升温达5.92℃,最低气温增幅更高,达6.21℃,东北、华北和青藏高原地区增温尤为显著。降水量随温升显著增加,全球温升3.0℃时,70%的地区年降水量增幅超过50 mm,青藏高原和西北地区增幅超过100 mm。伴随温升,极端高温和极端降水事件的频率和强度可能增加。风速和相对湿度整体呈下降趋势,可能影响风能资源开发和区域水汽循环:在全球温升1.5℃时,风速下降约0.15 m/s,温升5.0℃时下降至0.32 m/s,降幅扩大约1倍;相对湿度在温升5.0℃时较基准期下降0.34%,但模式间存在较大不确定性。[结论] 研究结果为中国区域气候变化的适应与减缓政策提供了科学依据,突出了控制全球温升的重要性,有助于应对气候变化带来的潜在挑战,降低未来气候风险。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] With global warming exerting persistent impacts on the climate system, this study investigates the evolving trends and spatial patterns of climatic elements across China under different warming scenarios,aiming to provide a scientific foundation for formulating differentiated climate adaptation strategies. [Methods] High-resolution data from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections(NEX-GDDP-CMIP6)were utilized to assess changes in climatic elements across China under global warming scenarios ranging from 1.5 ℃ to 5.0 ℃. Emphasis was placed on analyzing trends and spatial distribution of six key climate variables. [Results] The rate of land surface warming in China exceeded the global average,and the magnitude of temperature rise showed an intensifying trend relative to global temperature increases. When the global temperature rose by 1.5 ℃,China's annual mean temperature increased by approximately 1.3 ℃,whereas under a 5.0 ℃ global warming scenario,this rise reached 5.92 ℃. The minimum temperatures increased even more markedly,reaching 6.21 ℃,with significant warming observed in northeast China,north China,and the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. Precipitation increased significantly with rising temperatures. Under a 3.0 ℃ global warming scenario,70% of regions experienced annual precipitation increases by over 50 mm,with increases exceeding 100 mm in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and northwest China. With warming,the frequency and intensity of extreme high-temperature and precipitation events might intensify. Wind speed and relative humidity show declining trends, potentially affecting wind energy utilization and the regional water vapor cycle. Under a 1.5 ℃ warming scenario, wind speed decreased by about 0.15 m/s,declining to 0.32 m/s under a 5.0 ℃ warming scenario,which was double the decrease in the 1.5 ℃ scenario. Relative humidity declined by 0.34% compared to the reference period when the global temperature rose by 5.0 ℃,but substantial inter-model uncertainties persisted. [Conclusion] These findings provide a scientific basis for climate adaptation and mitigation policies in China,underscoring the critical need to constrain global temperature rise to address potential climate challenges and reduce future climate risks.

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温姗姗, 汪辰钰, 翟建青, 周彪.基于NEX-GDDP-CMIP6的不同温升情景下中国气候要素变化[J].水土保持学报,2025,39(5):219~233

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  • 收稿日期:2025-01-27
  • 最后修改日期:2025-02-25
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-10-20
  • 出版日期: 2025-10-28
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