气候变化情景下刺槐人工林潜在适生区变化及固碳潜力
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马云蕾(1996—),女,硕士研究生,主要从事干旱区生态水文过程研究。E-mail:15604304196@163.com

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S758.4

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国家自然科学基金项目(32460426);宁夏自然科学基金项目(2023AAC03056)


Potential Suitable Area Change and Carbon Sequestration Potential of Robinia pseudoacacia Plantation under Climate Change Scenario
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    摘要:

    [目的] 刺槐(Robinia pseudoacacia)作为我国主要的水土保持造林树种,对改善生态和增加碳储量具有重要作用,预测未来不同排放情景下刺槐林适生区分布和碳储量时空变化,并分析其固碳潜力,为区域人工林发展规划和可持续经营提供科学依据。[方法] 基于最大熵模型,预测未来气候变化情景下刺槐的潜在地理分布,定量研究刺槐未来受威胁的潜在地理分布区域和面积,通过分析综合环境因子变量贡献率及置换重要性,明确制约刺槐人工林潜在地理分布的影响因子;采用蓄积量-林龄模型,结合材积源-生物量法,估算并分析2090s刺槐林碳储量空间分布。[结果] 1)温度因子是影响刺槐潜在适生区分布的最关键气候因素,贡献率达到64.4%,其次为降水量因子。2)在当前气候条件下,刺槐的潜在适生区主要分布于黄河流域及淮河流域和长江上游地区,高适生区主要分布在我国北方地区,约占国土总面积的4.2%。未来气候变化下,SSP245和SSP370情景刺槐丧失区集中性增强,主要位于四川盆地;扩张区主要分布于稳定区周边区域,呈分布破碎化特点。3)未来4种气候情景下刺槐林碳储量及碳密度增加,到2100年,SSP585情景下碳储量达到最大。[结论] 在高排放情景下,碳储量中高值区向西北移动,集中分布于我国西北地区东部。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] Robinia pseudoacacia,as the main afforestation tree species in China,plays an important role in improving the ecological environment and increasing carbon storage to alleviate climate change. This paper predicts the spatial and temporal changes of the suitable area distribution and carbon storage of Robinia pseudoacacia forest under different emission scenarios in the future, and analyzes its carbon sequestration potential, so as to provide scientific basis for regional plantation development planning and sustainable management. [Methods] Based on the MaxEnt model,this study predicted the potential suitable area of Robinia pseudoacacia under future climate scenarios, and the potential geographic distribution and area of Robinia pseudoacacia were studied quantitatively in the future. By analyzing the contribution rate of comprehensive environmental factors and the importance of substitution, the influencing factors restricting the potential geographical distribution of Robinia pseudoacacia plantation were clarified. The spatial distribution of carbon storage in 2090 s Robinia pseudoacacia forest was estimated and analyzed by using the volume stand age model and the volume biomass method. [Results] 1)Temperature factor was the most critical climatic factor affecting the distribution of potential suitable areas of Robinia pseudoacacia, with a contribution rate of 64.4%, precipitation factor came second. 2)Under the current climatic conditions,the potential suitable areas of Robinia pseudoacacia were mainly distributed in the Yellow River Basin,the Huaihe River Basin and the upper reaches of the Yangtze River,and the high suitable areas were mainly distributed in the northern part of China,accounting for about 4.2% of the total land area. Under the future climate change,the concentration of Robinia pseudoacacia loss area will increase under the SSP245 and SSP370 scenarios,mainly located in the Sichuan Basin. The expansion area was mainly distributed in the surrounding area of the stable zone,showing the characteristics of distribution fragmentation. 3)In the future,the carbon storage and carbon density of Robinia pseudoacacia forest will increase under the four climate scenarios. By 2100,the carbon storage will reach the maximum under the SSP585 scenario. [Conclusion] Under the high emission scenario,the medium-high value area of carbon storage moves northwestward and is concentrated in the eastern part of Northwest China.

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马云蕾, 韩磊, 王娜娜, 马军, 王苑, 马世杰.气候变化情景下刺槐人工林潜在适生区变化及固碳潜力[J].水土保持学报,2025,39(2):260~268

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  • 收稿日期:2024-09-12
  • 最后修改日期:2024-11-20
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-05-07
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