基于MOP-PLUS对湖南省未来十年三生空间和生境质量动态模拟
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湖南工业大学

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湖南省教育厅科学研究重点项目(22A0419)


Dynamic Simulation of Production-Living-Ecological Space and Habitat Quality Based on MOP-PLUS in Hunan Province in the Next Ten Years
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School of Urban and Environmental Studies,Hunan University of Technology,Zhuzhou

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    摘要:

    [目的]湖南省是长江经济带重要节点省份,探究三生空间未来发展以及对未来生境质量评价,兼顾经济、生态发展,对国土空间资源配置和生态安全管理起着重要的作用。[方法]基于1990-2020年土地利用数据,通过土地利用转移矩阵和动态度分析湖南省30年间三生空间构成,使用多目标规划模型构建不同发展情景,利用PLUS、InVEST模型预测和分析不同发展情景土地利用变化。[结果]①1990-2020年湖南省生态空间占比最大,约为69.44%,生产空间次之约占28.74%,生活空间占比最小;生产空间和生态空间转换频繁,生活空间转换面积虽小,变化幅度最大。②四种情景均存在生产和生态空间减少,生活空间增加的趋势;生产和生活空间优先发展情景下生活空间增长最快,经济效益最大,是2020年的1.23倍;生态空间优先发展和自然发展情景下生态空间面积降幅小,生态效益较2020年降幅分别为0.098%、0.150%,但经济效益较低;三生空间均衡协调发展情景保护生态空间的同时满足区域发展的需求,兼顾生态效益和经济效益。③1990-2020年湖南省优等级生境质量占比最大,整体生境质量较好,波动不大,有下降态势。模拟得到的2030年生境质量均有小幅度下降。[结论]湖南省2030年生境质量变化不大,三生空间均衡协调发展情景兼顾经济、生态效益,适合地区未来发展。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] Hunan Province is an important node province of the Yangtze River economic belt. Exploring the future development of production-living-ecological space and evaluating the future habitat quality, taking into account economic and ecological development, plays an important role in the allocation of land space resources and ecological security management. [Method] Based on the land use data from 1990 to 2020, through the land use transfer matrix and dynamic degree analysis of the spatial composition of Hunan Province in the past 30 years, the multi-objective planning model was used to build different development scenarios. The PLUS and InVEST models were used to predict and analyze the land use changes in different development scenarios. [Results] ① from 1990 to 2020, the proportion of ecological space in Hunan Province was the largest, about 69.44%, followed by the production space, about 28.74%, and the living space was the smallest; The conversion of production space and ecological space is frequent. Although the conversion area of living space is small, the change range is the largest. ② In the four scenarios, the production and ecological space decreased, while the living space increased; Under the scenario of priority development of production and living space, living space has the fastest growth and the largest economic benefit, which is 1.23 times that of 2020; Under the scenarios of priority development of ecological space and natural development, the reduction of ecological space area is small, and the ecological benefits are 0.098% and 0.150% respectively compared with 2020, but the economic benefits are low; The balanced and coordinated development of production-living-ecological space scenario protects the ecological space while meeting the needs of regional development, taking into account ecological and economic benefits. ③ From 1990 to 2020, the habitat quality of superior grade in Hunan province accounted for the largest proportion, and the overall habitat quality was good, with little fluctuation and a downward trend. The simulated habitat quality decreased slightly in 2030. [Conclusion] the habitat quality of Hunan Province has little change in 2030, and the balanced and coordinated development scenario of production-living-ecological space takes into account economic and ecological benefits, which is suitable for the future development of the region.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-02-21
  • 最后修改日期:2025-03-21
  • 录用日期:2025-03-31
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-07-07
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