基于NEX-GDDP-CMIP6的不同温升情景下中国气候要素变化
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安徽师范大学

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(42005126, 42271081)


Changes in Climate Elements over China under Different Warming Scenarios Based on NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 datasets
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Anhui Normal University

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    摘要:

    [目的] 全球温升对气候系统持续影响,理解不同温升情景下气候要素的变化趋势和空间分布,为差异化气候适应策略制定提供科学依据。[方法] 利用NASA Earth eXchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections(NEX-GDDP)CMIP6高分辨率数据,评估了全球温升1.5 ~ 5 °C情景下中国气候要素的变化,重点分析了6个关键气候变量的趋势和空间分布。[结果] 中国陆地增温速率超全球均值,且温升幅度相对于全球温升呈现加剧趋势。当全球温升1.5 °C时,中国年平均气温上升约1.3 °C,温升5 °C时升幅达5.92 °C,最低气温增幅更高,达6.21 °C,东北、华北和青藏高原地区增温尤为显著。降水量随温升显著增加,全球温升3 °C时,70%的地区年降水量增幅超过50 mm,青藏高原和西北地区增幅超100 mm。伴随温升,极端高温和极端降水事件的频率和强度可能加剧。风速和相对湿度呈下降趋势,可能影响风能资源利用和区域水汽循环;全球温升1.5 °C时,风速下降约0.15 ?m/s,温升5 °C时下降至0.32? m/s,降幅较1.5 °C情景翻倍。相对湿度在温升5 °C时较基准期下降0.34%,但模式间存在较大不确定性。[结论]研究结果为中国区域气候变化的适应与减缓政策提供了科学依据,强调了控制全球温升的重要性,以应对气候变化带来的潜在挑战并减少未来的气候风险。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] Against the backdrop of persistent global warming impacts on climate systems, this study investigates the evolving trends and spatial patterns of climatic elements across China under different warming scenarios, aiming to provide a scientific foundation for formulating differentiated climate adaptation strategies. [Methods] Using NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) CMIP6 high-resolution data, this study evaluates the changes in climate elements across China under global warming scenarios of 1.5?°C to 5?°C, with a focus on analyzing trends and spatial distribution of six key climate variables. [Results] China's land surface warms faster than the global average, exhibiting amplified warming relative to global temperature rise. At 1.5?°C global warming, China’s annual mean temperature increases by approximately 1.3?°C, escalating to 5.92?°C under 5?°C warming. The minimum temperatures rises even more markedly, reaching 6.21?°C. The warming is particularly significant in Northeast China, North China, and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Precipitation increases notably, with 70% of regions experiencing annual precipitation increases exceeding 50?mm relative to the baseline period under 3?°C warming, while the Tibetan Plateau and Northwest China receive over 100?mm more. Extreme high-temperature and extreme precipitation events are projected to intensify in both frequency and magnitude under higher warming scenarios. Wind speed and relative humidity display declining trends, potentially affecting wind energy utilization and regional moisture cycles. At 1.5?°C warming, wind speed decreases by about 0.15?m/s, nearly doubling to 0.32?m/s under 5?°C warming. Relative humidity declines by 0.34% compared to the baseline period at 5?°C warming, though substantial inter-model uncertainties persist. [Conclusion] These findings provide scientific support for climate adaptation and mitigation policies in China, emphasizing the critical need to constrain global temperature rise to address potential climate challenges and reduce future climate risks.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-01-27
  • 最后修改日期:2025-02-25
  • 录用日期:2025-03-10
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-07-07
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