基于PLUS-InVEST模型的福建省土地利用变化与碳储量评估
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国家重大基金项目(42293272)


Evaluation of Land Use Change and Carbon Storage in Fujian Province Based on PLUS-InVEST Model
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    摘要:

    [目的] 福建省森林覆盖率高达66.8%,是我国森林覆盖率排名第1的省份。探讨福建省土地利用变化对碳储量时空变化的影响是探寻社会发展和生态保护平衡点的理论基础。[方法] 基于PLUS模型和InVEST模型碳储量模块,揭示2000—2020年全省碳储量时空变化特征与土地利用类型之间的关系,并从自然发展、生态保护和城镇发展3种情景预测2020—2030年福建省碳储量时空变化。[结果] 2000年、2010年和2020年研究区的总碳储量分别为214.77×107,214.51×107,212.93×107 t,呈逐年下降趋势。人类活动对土地的开发和改造是导致碳储量变化的主导因素,大面积的耕地和林地转变为建设用地是导致碳储量降低的直接原因。预测结果认为,与2020年相比,2030年自然发展、生态保护和城镇发展情景下碳储量分别减少1.47×107 t,增加0.17×107 t,减少1.85×107 t。生态保护情景是唯一逆转碳储量下降的发展情景,该情景与2020年相比,林地面积扩张1 900.87 km2,林地碳储量增长2.08×107 t,在切实保护生态的同时也能够满足城镇发展的土地需求。[结论] 落实以林地保护为主,控制建设用地是福建省实现"双碳"目标的重要前提。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] The forest coverage rate of Fujian Province is as high as 66.8%, ranking first in China. To investigate the impact of land use changes on carbon storage in Fujian Province is the theoretical basis for exploring the balance between social development and ecological protection. [Methods] Based on the carbon storage module of PLUS model and InVEST model, relationship between the spatiotemporal change characteristics of carbon storage and land use types in Fujian province during 2000—2020 was revealed, and the spatial and temporal changes of carbon storage in Fujian Province during 2020—2030 were predicted from three scenarios: natural development, ecological protection and urban development. [Results] The total carbon reserves in the study area in 2000, 2010 and 2020 were 214.77×107, 214.51×107 and 212.93×107 t, respectively, indicating a downward trend year by years. The development and transformation of land by human activities was the dominant factor leading to changes in carbon stocks, and the conversion of large areas of cultivated land and forest land into urban areas was the primary reason for the decline in carbon stocks. The prediction results showed that compared with 2020, carbon storage under natural development, ecological protection and urban development in 2030 would decrease by 1.47×107 t, increase by 0.17×107 t, and decrease by 1.85×107 t, respectively. The ecological protection scenario was the only development scenario that reversed the decline in carbon stocks. Compared with 2020, the forest area had expanded by 1 900.87 km2 and the forest carbon storage had increased by 2.08×107 t, which could effectively protect the ecology and meet the land requirements for urban development. [Conclusion] Prioritizing forest land protection and controlling the expansion of construction land are crucial prerequisites for Fujian Province to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.

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黄韬,刘素红.基于PLUS-InVEST模型的福建省土地利用变化与碳储量评估[J].水土保持学报,2024,38(2):246~257

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  • 收稿日期:2023-07-13
  • 最后修改日期:2023-09-13
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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-05-20
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