基于PLUS和InVEST模型的合肥市生态系统碳储量时空演变特征
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X171.1

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国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(41301650)


Temporal and Spatial Evolution Characteristics of Carbon Storage in Hefei Ecosystem Based on PLUS and InVEST Models
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    摘要:

    [目的] 为寻求"双碳"目标导向下的合肥市城市发展新方案。[方法] 依据合肥市2000—2020年5期土地利用数据,在合肥市国土空间规划指引下,运用PLUS模型模拟得到2035年合肥市土地利用时空演变规律,耦合InVEST模型探究多情景下合肥市碳储量时空变化特征,并进一步挖掘土地综合利用程度对碳储量的影响。[结果] (1)2000—2020年合肥市土地利用变化特征主要表现为耕地、林地减少,其中耕地为建设用地扩增主要来源。自然发展和农田资源保护情景的土地变化规律大致相同,主要表现为耕地、林地、水体减少;绿色汇增城市发展情景下,林地相比其余2个情景面积由减少转为增加。(2)2000—2020年合肥市碳储量逐年递减,其中2005—2010年碳损失最为剧烈。到2035年,自然发展情景、农田资源保护情景、绿色汇增城市发展情景碳储量分别为138.96×106,140.13×106,139.81×106 t。农田资源保护情景下,碳储量明显增加区域最低,建设用地扩张减缓;绿色汇增城市发展情景下,林地由碳损失转为碳固持,是最具固碳潜力的发展趋势。(3)绿色汇增城市发展情景土地利用率最高,可有效降低土地综合利用程度对碳储量流失的威胁。[结论] 农田资源保护情景与绿色汇增城市发展情景均有助于城市固碳发展,实施生态保护与城市发展并行政策,调整土地综合利用模式有助于改善城市碳流失。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] To seek a new urban development plan of Hefei under the guidance of "double carbon" goal. [Methods] Based on the land use data of Hefei City in the 5th period from 2000 to 2020, under the guidance of territorial spatial Planning of Hefei City, the spatio-temporal evolution law of land use in 2035 was simulated by the PLUS model, and the spatio-temporal change characteristics of carbon storage in Hefei City under multiple scenarios were explored by coupling the InVEST model. And further explore the effect of the comprehensive land use on the carbon storage. [Results] (1) The main characteristics of land use change in Hefei City from 2000 to 2020 were the decrease of cultivated land and forest land, among which cultivated land was the main source of construction land expansion. The law of land change in the natural development and farmland resource protection scenarios was roughly the same, mainly represented by the reduction of cultivated land, forest land and water body. In the green urban development scenario, the area of forest land changed from decreasing to increasing compared with the other two scenarios. (2) Carbon storage in Hefei City decreased year by year from 2000 to 2020, and the carbon loss was the most 2005 to 2010. By 2035, the carbon reserves of natural development scenario, farmland resource protection scenario and green urban development scenario were 138.96×106 t, 140.13×106 t, and 139.81×106 t, respectively. Under the farmland resource protection scenario, the area with the lowest increase of carbon storage significantly slowed down the expansion of the construction land. under the scenario of urban development, forest land changes from carbon loss to carbon sequestration, which was the most potential trend of carbon sequestration. (3) The land utilization rate of green urban development scenario was the highest, which can effectively reduce the threat of comprehensive land use degree to carbon storage loss. [Conclusion] Both farmland resource protection scenario and green accumulation urban development scenario were conducive to urban carbon sequestration development. Implementing parallel policies of ecological protection and urban development, and adjusting comprehensive land use mode were conducive to improving urban carbon loss.

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智菲,周振宏,赵铭,王诗琪.基于PLUS和InVEST模型的合肥市生态系统碳储量时空演变特征[J].水土保持学报,2024,38(2):205~215

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  • 收稿日期:2023-09-26
  • 最后修改日期:2023-10-24
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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-05-20
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