1990—2020年滇中城市群耕地非农化时空变化特征及驱动机制分析
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云南师范大学

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F301.2 ????

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国家自然科学基金项目(42261073、41971369、41561086、 42171392),云南省中青年学术和技术带头人后备人才项目(202305AC160083、202205AC160014),云南省基础研究专项重点项目(202201AS070024、202001AS070032),云南省基础研究计划青年项目(202101AU070037),云南师范大学研究生科研创新基金(YJSJJ23-B146)


Analysis on The Spatial and Temporal Changes and Driving Mechanism of Cultivated Land Conversion in Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration From 1990 to 2020
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Yunnan Normal University

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    摘要:

    [目的]通过分析滇中城市群30年来耕地非农化的演变路径、时空变化特征及驱动机制,为滇中城市群耕地资源的保护及精准管理提供理论依据。[方法]基于滇中城市群土地利用数据和统计年鉴数据,运用重心迁移模型、变化轨迹模型、空间自相关分析、主成分分析等方法揭示1990—2020年滇中城市群耕地非农化过程、空间分布特征及主要驱动因素。[结果]结果表明:(1)从时间上看,滇中城市群耕地非农化面积呈现出波动下降的趋势,在2000年前后受政策、经济和城市化影响变化最剧烈。从空间上看,耕地非农化集中分布于滇中城市群的中部、东部、东南部和东北部地区。(2)30年来,滇中城市群耕地非农化在空间分布上趋于均衡,区域间耕地非农化差异变小,空间格局趋于稳定,总体上表现出向西南部迁移的趋势。(3)滇中城市群耕地主要转出为林地和草地,少部分转化为建设用地,耕地非农化主要发生在滇中城市群的中部、北部和东南部、西北部的局部区域。(4)滇中城市群耕地非农化存在显著的空间聚集效应,以高-高聚集和低-低聚集为主,高-高聚集主要分布在中部、北部和东南部,低-低集聚主要分布在西北部、西部和西南部。(5)滇中城市群耕地非农化受社会经济和自然条件共同影响。社会经济中的国有固定产投资、农业人口和城市化率是耕地非农化扩张最主要的驱动因素,而自然因素年均降水量和年均气温在耕地非农化空间分布和扩张过程起着关键性的作用。[结论]研究结果揭示了30年来滇中城市群耕地非农化的时空变化特征、演变路径及驱动机制。对合理利用和保护耕地资源,保障云南省粮食安全具有重要作用,在一定程度上可以为滇中城市群的耕地保护和耕地布局优化提供决策参考。

    Abstract:

    [Objective]By analyzing the evolution path, spatiotemporal variation characteristics, and driving mechanisms of farmland non agriculturalization in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration over the past 30 years, theoretical basis is provided for the protection and precise management of farmland resources in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration.[Methods] Based on the land use data and statistical yearbook data of the Central Yunnan urban agglomeration, the paper uses methods such as gravity displacement model, change trajectory model, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and principal component analysis to reveal the process and spatial distribution characteristics of farmland conversion to non-agricultural uses in the Central Yunnan urban agglomeration from 1990 to 2020, as well as the main driving factors.[Results] The results indicate that:(1) From a temporal perspective, the non agricultural area of cultivated land in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration has shown a fluctuating downward trend, with the most drastic changes affected by policies, economy, and urbanization around 2000. From a spatial perspective, the non-agricultural conversion of cultivated land is concentrated in the central, eastern, southeastern, and northeastern regions of the central Yunnan urban agglomeration.(2) Over the past three decades, farmland converted to non-agricultural land in the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration has tended to be balanced in spatial distribution, with smaller differences in farmland conversion between regions and a stable spatial pattern overall, generally exhibiting a trend of migration to the southwestern region.(3) The main destinations for farmland converted to non-agricultural land in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration are forestland and grassland, with a small portion converted into construction land, mainly in the central, northern, and southeastern parts as well as in some local areas of the northwest.(4) There is a significant spatial clustering effect in the non-agricultural transformation of cultivated land in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration, mainly characterized by high high clustering and low low clustering. High high clustering is mainly distributed in the central, northern, and southeastern regions, while low low clustering is mainly distributed in the northwest, western, and southwestern regions.(5) The non agriculturalization of cultivated land in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration is influenced by both socio-economic and natural conditions. The state-owned fixed asset investment, agricultural population, and urbanization rate are the main driving factors for the non-agricultural expansion of farmland in the social economy, while natural factors such as annual precipitation and temperature play a crucial role in the spatial distribution and expansion process of non-agricultural farmland.[Conclusion] The results have revealed the spatiotemporal change characteristics, evolution path, and driving mechanisms of farmland converted to non-agricultural land in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration over the past 30 years. The research results reveal the spatial and temporal characteristics, evolution path, and driving mechanism of cultivated land conversion in the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration over the past 30 years. It plays an important role in rational utilization and protection of arable land resources and ensuring food security in Yunnan Province, and to a certain extent, it can provide decision-making reference for the protection and optimization of arable land layout in the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-11-06
  • 最后修改日期:2023-12-19
  • 录用日期:2023-12-27
  • 在线发布日期: 2024-04-29
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