基于SD-PLUS耦合模型的陕西省土地利用变化及碳储量多情景预测研究
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1.西安建筑科技大学;2.陕西省矿产地质调查中心

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陕西省公益性地质调查项目“陕西省国有自然资源资产管理评价体系研究”


Multi-scenario prediction of land use change and carbon stock in Shaanxi Province based on SD-PLUS coupled model
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1.西安建筑科技大学;2.Xi''''an Univ of Arch &Tech

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    摘要:

    不同土地利用方式对区域生态系统碳储量有显著的影响。本文以陕西省为研究对象,利用SD-PLUS耦合模型,采用国际耦合模式比较计划第6阶段(CMIP6)提出的耦合共享社会经济路线和代表性浓度路线(SSP-RCP)情景,对2030年陕西省的土地利用变化进行预测,然后利用InVEST模型模拟的未来不同情景下陕西省碳储量及其空间分布。结果表明:(1)构建的SD模型进行历史检验,其误差小于5%,PLUS模型模拟的2020年土地利用Kappa指数为0.86,模型精度和可靠性总体符合要求;(2)三种情景下,未来建设用地面积均增加,增长速率从低到高的情景分别为:SSP126、SSP245、SSP585;在所有情景下,林地面积均增加,水域面积均保持稳定;草地面积在SSP126情景下有小幅度增加,其他情景下减少;耕地面积三种情景下均减少;(3)三种情景下陕西省碳储量均减少,其中关中平原建设用地的扩张占用了大量的耕地是造成陕西省碳储量下降的主要原因。在SSP126情景下,建设用地扩张所占用的生态用地面积最小,碳储量损失最少,该情景同时考虑了社会经济发展及生态保护的需要,可以为未来陕西省国土资源保护和高质量发展提供一个参考模式。

    Abstract:

    Studies have shown that different land use modes have significant effects on regional ecosystem carbon stocks. In this paper, using the SD-PLUS coupled model and the coupled shared socio-economic route and representative concentration route (SSP-RCP) scenario proposed by the International Coupled Model Comparison Program Phase 6 (CMIP6), the land use changes in Shaanxi Province in 2030 were projected, and then the different future scenarios simulated by the InVEST model were used to predict the Shaanxi Province"s carbon storage and its spatial distribution under different future scenarios simulated by the InVEST model. The results show that;(1)The SD model constructed was tested historically, and its error was less than 5%, and the Kappa index of land use in 2020 simulated by the PLUS model was 0.86, and the accuracy and reliability of the model generally met the requirements;(2) Under the three scenarios, the area of future construction land increases, and the scenarios with the lowest to highest growth rates are: SSP126, SSP245, SSP585; under all scenarios, the area of forest land increases, and the area of watersheds remains stable; the area of grassland has a small increase under the SSP126 scenario, and decreases in other scenarios; and the area of arable land decreases in all three scenarios;(3) Carbon stock in Shaanxi Province decreases under all three scenarios, with the decrease in carbon stock in the Guanzhong Plain being the main reason for the decrease in carbon stock in Shaanxi Province. The area of ecological land occupied by the expansion of construction land is the smallest under the SSP126 scenario, which takes into account both socio-economic development and the need for ecological protection, and can provide a reference model for the future protection of land resources and high-quality development in Shaanxi Province.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2023-10-23
  • 最后修改日期:2023-12-17
  • 录用日期:2023-12-27
  • 在线发布日期: 2024-04-29
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