In the context of achieving the goal of "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality", we should clarify the current situation of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions, simulate and predict the peak value, and provide a scientific basis for promoting low-carbon emission reduction of agriculture in Jiangsu Province. Based on the two types of carbon sources of agricultural material input and farmland soil utilization, the IPCC carbon emission coefficient method and inventory method were used to comprehensively calculate the carbon emissions of the planting industry in Jiangsu Province from 1990 to 2020. The Tapio decoupling model was used to analyze the decoupling relationship between agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural economic growth, and the carbon emissions from 2021 to 2060 were predicted based on the grey prediction model GM (1,1). The results showed that:(1) The carbon emissions from agricultural planting in Jiangsu Province reached 1 999.53 tons in 2020. From 1990 to 2020, it first increased, then decreased, then increased, and then tended to be stable. Carbon emissions from agricultural planting mainly came from farmland soil use, accounting for 77.73%~86.95% of carbon emissions, and 13.05%~22.27% of carbon emissions from agricultural inputs. (2) Chemical fertilizer was the most important source of carbon emissions from agricultural inputs, accounting for 69.15%~79.20%, followed by pesticides and agricultural film, and agricultural machinery, irrigation and tillage had relatively low proportion. (3) Rice was the main emission source of farmland soil use, accounting for 79.76%~87.23% of farmland soil use carbon emissions, followed by wheat and vegetables, while soybean, corn and cotton accounted for a relatively low proportion. (4) The decoupling relationship was dominated by weak decoupling and strong decoupling, indicating a slow growth or decreasing trend of the carbon emissions from agricultural planting with the increasing of gross domestic product of the planting industry. (5) Taking the carbon emissions data of agricultural planting from 1990 to 2020 (nearly 30 years) and 1999 to 2020 (nearly 20 years) as samples, it was predicted that the carbon emissions of agricultural planting in Jiangsu Province will continue to increase from 2021 to 2060, and will not reach the peak in 2060. Based on the carbon emissions data of agricultural planting from 2010 to 2020, the carbon emissions of agricultural planting in Jiangsu Province will continue to decrease from 2021 to 2060, and has reached its peak in 2020, indicating that the development of low-carbon green agriculture in Jiangsu Province has achieved initial results in recent years.
范振浩, 邢巍巍, 卜元卿, 刘娟.江苏省种植业碳排放的测算及达峰分析[J].水土保持学报,2023,37(5):78~85复制