NanNing Normal University
The Silk Road Economic Belt promotes the rapid development of urban economy in various countries and regions along the Silk Road, resulting in profound changes in land use. Studying the changes in carbon storage caused by land use in this region is of great significance for optimizing land use pattern and realizing the goal of double carbon. The coupled PLUS-InVEST model was used to evaluate and predict the carbon storage of land use in five provinces and cities along the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road in China from 1980 to 2030, and the spatio-temporal characteristics of land use carbon storage under multiple scenarios were simulated to explore the impact of land use on carbon storage. The results show that the areas of carbon storage reduction in the past 50 years are mainly located in the southern Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, the northern Shanghai, Hangzhou area and the coastal line, which are the core port cities of the Silk Road. In the past 50 years, the reduction of carbon reserves in this region has been huge and intensified, and the future trend is more severe. The cultivated land in this region has significantly decreased and the construction land has significantly increased. The key factor to slow down the loss of carbon reserves is the dynamic balance of forest land. Through multi-scenario simulation, the future carbon storage reduction is mainly affected by the loss of cultivated land and the rapid expansion of construction land. Ecological protection scenarios can significantly reduce the loss of carbon storage. However, given the special strategic conditions of the region, the only choice is to take advantage of economic development opportunities, ensure the quantity of cultivated land and forest land, limit the rapid urban expansion, and improve the quality of ecological land such as grassland. To balance the needs of economic development and ecological protection.The purpose of this study is to provide reference for the coordination of economic and ecological development of the Maritime Silk Road.