海上丝绸之路经济带中国沿线省市生态系统碳储量演化分析与预测
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1.南宁师范大学;2.广西森林资源与生态环境监测中心

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国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)


Analysis and prediction of ecosystem carbon storage evolution in Chinese provinces and cities along the Maritime Silk Road Economic Belt
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NanNing Normal University

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    摘要:

    丝绸之路经济带促进沿线各个国家和地区城市经济快速的快速发展,引起土地利用的深刻变化,研究该区域土地利用所引起的碳储量变化,对优化土地利用格局、实现双碳目标具有重要意义。通过耦合PLUS-InVEST模型评估与预测21世纪海上丝绸之路中国沿线五个省市1980-2030年的土地利用碳储量情况,模拟多情景下土地利用碳储量时空特征,探究土地利用对碳储量影响。结果表明:50年间碳储量减少区域主要位于南部粤港澳大湾区、北部上海、杭州地区和沿海岸线,为丝绸之路核心的口岸城市;50年间该区域的碳储量减少量巨大且不断加剧,未来趋势更为严峻,该区域耕地显著减少、建设用地显著增加,减缓碳储量流失的关键因素是林地能够实现动态平衡;通过多情景模拟预测,未来碳储量减少主要受耕地流失、建设用地快速扩张影响,通过生态保护情景能大幅度降低碳储量流失,但区域的特殊战略条件,只能选择利用经济发展机遇,保障耕地和林地保有量同时限制城市快速扩张,提升草地等生态用地质量,以平衡经济发展和生态保护需要。通过本研究旨在为实现海上丝绸之路经济与生态发展协调提供参考。

    Abstract:

    The Silk Road Economic Belt promotes the rapid development of urban economy in various countries and regions along the Silk Road, resulting in profound changes in land use. Studying the changes in carbon storage caused by land use in this region is of great significance for optimizing land use pattern and realizing the goal of double carbon. The coupled PLUS-InVEST model was used to evaluate and predict the carbon storage of land use in five provinces and cities along the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road in China from 1980 to 2030, and the spatio-temporal characteristics of land use carbon storage under multiple scenarios were simulated to explore the impact of land use on carbon storage. The results show that the areas of carbon storage reduction in the past 50 years are mainly located in the southern Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, the northern Shanghai, Hangzhou area and the coastal line, which are the core port cities of the Silk Road. In the past 50 years, the reduction of carbon reserves in this region has been huge and intensified, and the future trend is more severe. The cultivated land in this region has significantly decreased and the construction land has significantly increased. The key factor to slow down the loss of carbon reserves is the dynamic balance of forest land. Through multi-scenario simulation, the future carbon storage reduction is mainly affected by the loss of cultivated land and the rapid expansion of construction land. Ecological protection scenarios can significantly reduce the loss of carbon storage. However, given the special strategic conditions of the region, the only choice is to take advantage of economic development opportunities, ensure the quantity of cultivated land and forest land, limit the rapid urban expansion, and improve the quality of ecological land such as grassland. To balance the needs of economic development and ecological protection.The purpose of this study is to provide reference for the coordination of economic and ecological development of the Maritime Silk Road.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-05-04
  • 最后修改日期:2023-06-07
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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-11-05
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