多情景视角下云南省“三生”空间变化模拟与效应评价
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1.昆明理工大学;2.云南省地质科学研究所;3.云南师范大学

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国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)


Multiple Scenario Perspective of Production-Living-Ecological Space Change Simulation and Effect Evaluation in Yunnan Province
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1.Kunming University of Science and Technology;2.Yunnan Provincial Geomatics Centre

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    摘要:

    优化国土空间开发格局和统筹协调“三生”空间格局配置,是实现未来可持续发展的重点任务和根本途径。本文以云南省土地利用为基础,结合自然和社会发展因素,采用MOP-PLUS耦合模型模拟2030年经济优先、生态优先和协同发展3种情景下“三生”空间及效应变化。结果表明:(1)3种情景下经济效益增长40.29%、32.10%、34.79%,生态效益减少0.89%、0%(未变)、0.06%,生境质量均值下降0.78%、0.38%、0.43%,空间冲突强度均值增长2.79%、下降1.21%、下降2.32%;(2)3种情景生活空间均呈上升、生态空间呈下降趋势,生产空间仅在经济优先情景有较小增长;均存在生活空间侵占生产空间,生产空间再掠夺生态空间的情况,生活空间扩张呈中心向四周蚕食趋势;(3)不同发展情景下均伴随一定程度的生境质量下降,通过优化空间布局可平衡空间冲突;相较于其他情景,协同发展情景经济效益增幅适中,生境质量变化幅度相对均衡,空间冲突强度下降最多,符合兼顾生态保护、经济发展、社会进步的多重目标。本文形成的模拟-效应-优化的反馈调控机制,可与不同尺度、不同目标结合开展土地利用变化模拟与效应分析,为国土空间配置提供决策依据。

    Abstract:

    To optimize the pattern of territorial space development and coordinate the pattern of production-living-ecological space is the key task and fundamental way to achieve sustainable development in the future. Based on the land use in Yunnan Province and combined with the natural and social development factors, The MOP-PLUS coupling model was used to simulate the changes of production-living-ecological space and its effects under three scenarios of economic priority, ecological priority and collaborative development in 2030 The results indicated that: (1) Under the three scenarios, the economic benefit increased by 40.29%, 32.10% and 34.79%, the ecological benefit decreased by 0.89%, 0% (unchanged) and 0.06%, the average habitat quality decreased by 0.78%, 0.38% and 0.43%, and the average spatial conflict intensity increased by 2.79%, decreased by 1.21% and decreased by 2.32%. (2) Living space increased and ecological space decreased in the three scenarios. Production space only increased slightly in the economic priority scenario. In all cases, living space encroaches on production space, and then production space plagues ecological space. The expansion of living space shows a trend of encroaching from the center to the periphery. (3) Habitat quality decreased to some extent under different development scenarios, and spatial conflicts could be balanced by optimizing spatial layout. Compared with other scenarios, the growth of economic benefits in the collaborative development scenario was moderate, the variation range of habitat quality was relatively balanced, and the intensity of spatial conflicts decreased the most, which was in line with the multiple goals of ecological protection, economic development and social progress. The simulation-effect-optimization feedback regulation mechanism formed in this paper can be combined with different scales and objectives to carry out land use change simulation and effect analysis, and provide a basis for decision-making of territorial space allocation.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-04-24
  • 最后修改日期:2023-05-26
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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-10-31
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