文章摘要
吴常雪, 田碧青, 高鹏, 穆兴民, 赵广举, 尹殿胜.近40年鄱阳湖枯水期水体面积变化特征及驱动因素分析[J].水土保持学报,2021,35(3):177~184,189
近40年鄱阳湖枯水期水体面积变化特征及驱动因素分析
Characteristics and Driving Factors of Water Area Change of Poyang Lake During Dry Season in Recent 40 Years
投稿时间:2020-10-29  
DOI:10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2021.03.025
中文关键词: 鄱阳湖  枯水期  湖区面积  径流  土地利用
英文关键词: Poyang Lake  dry season  water area  runoff  land use
基金项目:国家重点研究计划项目(2016YFC0501707)
作者单位E-mail
吴常雪1, 田碧青1, 高鹏1,2, 穆兴民1,2, 赵广举1,2, 尹殿胜3 1. 西北农林科技大学水土保持研究所黄土高原土壤侵蚀与旱地农业国家重点实验室, 陕西 杨陵 712100

2. 中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所
, 陕西 杨陵 712100

3. 中水淮河规划设计研究有限公司
, 合肥 230601 
gaopeng@ms.iswc.ac.cn 
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中文摘要:
      湖泊是维持生态平衡的重要因素,鄱阳湖作为我国最大的淡水湖,由于枯水期提前且持续时间延长导致水体面积发生变化。研究鄱阳湖枯水期水体面积的变化特征及其驱动因素对区域生态环境的稳定及经济发展具有重要意义。利用1973-2018年鄱阳湖枯水期遥感影像数据,采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法、Mann-Kendall突变分析法及Pettitt突变检验对湖泊水体面积变化特征进行分析,并利用双累积曲线法量化出入湖流量之差和人类活动导致的土地利用的变化对鄱阳湖枯水期水体面积的影响。结果表明:(1)在研究时段内,鄱阳湖枯水期水体面积呈极显著下降趋势(P<0.01),突变点年份为2002年(P<0.01);(2)出入湖径流量之差多年来呈现不显著的增加趋势;1980-2015年鄱阳湖流域的土地利用情况表现为城乡工建用地增加,其余用地类型均呈现减小趋势;(3)以1977-2002年作为基准期,2003-2016年人类活动导致的土地利用的变化对鄱阳湖枯水期水体面积变化的贡献率为87.48%,是鄱阳湖枯水期水体面积显著减少的主要原因。研究成果为鄱阳湖水资源的合理利用及维持区域生态系统的平衡提供了科学依据。
英文摘要:
      Lake is an important factor to maintain ecological balance. As the largest freshwater lake in China, water area of Poyang Lake has been changed due to the advance and prolonged dry season. It is of great significance for the stability of regional ecological environment and economic development to study the variation characteristics and driving factors of water area in Poyang Lake during the dry season. In this study, based on the remote sensing image data of Poyang Lake in dry season from 1973 to 2018, Mann-Kendall trend test, Mann-Kendall mutation analysis and Pettitt mutation test were used to analyze the area change of Poyang Lake during the dry season, and the double mass curve method was used to quantify the effects of the difference of inflow and outflow as well as land use change caused by human activities on the water area of Poyang Lake. The results showed that:(1) During the study period, the water area of Poyang Lake showed a very significant decline in the dry season (P<0.01), the year of the abrupt transition point was 2002 (P<0.01). (2) The difference of runoff in and out of the lake showed an insignificant increase trend over the years. From 1980 to 2015, the land use of Poyang Lake basin showed an increase in industrial and construction land in urban and rural areas, while other land use types showed a decreasing trend. (3) Taking 1977 to 2002 as the base period, the contribution rate of land use change caused by human activities was 87.48% to the change of Poyang Lake's water area during the dry season from 2003 to 2016, which was the main reason for the significant reduction of water area of Poyang Lake in dry season. The results could provide scientific basis for the rational utilization of water resources and the maintenance of regional ecosystem balance in Poyang Lake.
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